GOP Wins in 2010 Could Lead to Big Losses in 2012

Looking at last week’s election results, I noticed that black turnout in VA was 20% down since ‘08 and youth turnout was 50% down. While this fact does not account for McDonnell’s win, it does account for some portion of his huge margin of victory. Most importantly, it means that conservative declarations that the Obama era is over are premature.

…is still in force, nobody is under investigation for waterboarding, the troops are still in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc. etc. etc. The Democratic base’s turnout is very low. Independents, inasmuch as they bother to show up at all, do so mostly to register their unhappiness with the economy. The Republican base is energized and turns out in force. Despite a number of disappointing narrow losses by conservative candidates and very mixed results in the Senate, the GOP picks dozens of seats in the House (a lot of them by a razor margin). While the Democrats are actually still in charge of everything, triumphant conservatives convince each other that the era of Obama (and Pelosi) is truly over and that unabashed uncompromising conservatism is just the ticket to building a permanent majority. The next presidential campaign starts the day after the midterm election and a lot of wheeling and dealing, political alignment, talent hiring by campaigns etc. happen in early 2011, while it is still very difficult to judge…

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GOP Wins in 2010 Could Lead to Big Losses in 2012

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